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Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.77 xG and Willem II 1.32 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Willem II 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.34 PPG, Willem II 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights