Emmen 0-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Emmen at 47%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Willem II at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Emmen — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Emmen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Willem II away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Emmen's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Emmen have won 1, Willem II 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Nov 2025, ended Emmen 1–1 Willem II — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 61% | Willem II 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.77 xG and Willem II 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.091 / defence 1.024 | Willem II attack 0.885 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.455. Data: built from Emmen's last 64 games and Willem II's last 28.
Result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.12 | Draw 4.01 | Willem II 3.60. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 70% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 29 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Emmen 1.77 / Willem II 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.091 / def 1.024 | Willem II attack 0.885 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Emmen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Willem II xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Willem II kick off?
Emmen vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Willem II?
Emmen 0 - 3 Willem II.
Where is Emmen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Willem II part of?
Emmen vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 47% chance of winning, Willem II a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Emmen and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.09) and Willem II's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 64 games and Willem II's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.01
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.09
1.32
Willem II xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Emmen and 1.32 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 64 games, going 25W 11D 28L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (18W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.34 PPG, Willem II on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 8D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Willem II
Current Season
Emmen (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Emmen vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 11D 28L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Willem II have gone 18W 15D 31L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Willem II away?
Emmen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.42 PPG; Willem II away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2023, when Willem II won Willem II 3-0 Emmen.
Emmen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Willem II?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 1, Willem II have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Emmen 0-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 64%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Emmen) and 52% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Emmen's games and 61% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Emmen and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Emmen's matches and 52% of Willem II's.
Do Emmen and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Emmen's recent matches and 81% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.77 xG and Willem II 1.32 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Willem II 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.34 PPG, Willem II 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 29
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →