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Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Emmen 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Emmen 2-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 3.05 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG, a combined 4.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.12 / defence 1.35, drawn from 62/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Jong PSV U21 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.37 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights