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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Emmen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Jong AZ 4-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 1.75 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Jong AZ attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 42% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 36%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Jong AZ 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.42 PPG, Jong AZ 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights