🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Emmen 1-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Jong AZ attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Emmen 46% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 30%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Emmen's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Emmen 1.53 PPG, Jong AZ 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights