Emmen 2-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Dordrecht at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Emmen's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Emmen have won 3, Dordrecht 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 0–3 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 52% versus Dordrecht 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 61% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.945 / defence 1.173 | Dordrecht attack 1.206 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.279. Dordrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Emmen games / 44 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 28% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 2.04. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 70% | Dordrecht 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 28% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Emmen 1.34 / Dordrecht 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.945 / def 1.173 | Dordrecht attack 1.206 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Dordrecht xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Dordrecht kick off?
Emmen vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Emmen 2 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Emmen vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Dordrecht part of?
Emmen vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 28% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Emmen and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 4W.
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
28%
3.51
23%
4.35
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.81
Dordrecht xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
5%
21.47
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Emmen and 1.81 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen's recent record stands at 19W 6D 19L from 44 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 11L across 44 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.43 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 9W 3D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dordrecht's season.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.80 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Dordrecht in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 19W 6D 19L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.32 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Emmen or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Emmen
1
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Dordrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 64%, Dordrecht 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Emmen) and 50% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht in 36%; Dordrecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Emmen's recent matches and 36% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Emmen's matches and 50% of Dordrecht's.
Do Emmen and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Dordrecht 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.81 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Dordrecht attack 1.21 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 28% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 49%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.43 PPG, Dordrecht 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.