Emmen 1-4 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Emmen welcome Almere City FC to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Emmen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Emmen, 2 for Almere City FC and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Almere City FC trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 47% versus Almere City FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 62% | Almere City FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.99 xG and Almere City FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.999 / defence 1.044 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.214. Data: 39 Emmen games / 0 Almere City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Emmen 58% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 60% | Almere City FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 58% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Emmen 1.99 / Almere City FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.999 / def 1.044 | Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Emmen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Almere City FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Emmen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Emmen 1 - 4 Almere City FC.
Where is Emmen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Almere City FC part of?
Emmen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 58% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Emmen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.65
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.08
Almere City FC xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
3%
36.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Emmen and 1.08 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 4D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.65 PPG from 34 outings (4W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. Almere City FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.68 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 15W 4D 15L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 4W 10D 20L in their last 34 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Almere City FC away?
Emmen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.50 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 1, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 56%, Almere City FC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Emmen) and 44% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Emmen's recent matches and 31% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Emmen's recent games and 44% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Emmen 1-4 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.99 xG and Almere City FC 1.08 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 58% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 20%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Almere City FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.