🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.92 / defence 0.74 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights