🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dordrecht and Waalwijk meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Waalwijk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Trading

Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 49% versus Waalwijk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Waalwijk 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.919 / defence 0.741 | Waalwijk attack 1.005 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.379. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Dordrecht games / 11 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 4.17. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights