🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dordrecht and Vitesse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Dordrecht and Vitesse drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.44 xG and Vitesse 1.41 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 0.79 against Vitesse attack 1.21 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 37%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 61%, Vitesse 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Vitesse's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights