Dordrecht vs Telstar – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Telstar 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Telstar 3-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.05 xG and Telstar 1.02 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Telstar outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.30 / defence 0.89 against Telstar attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 60% | Draw 22% | Telstar 18%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Telstar 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Telstar's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights