Dordrecht vs Telstar – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.81x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.49
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.07
1.02
Telstar xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
2%
44.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.02 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.