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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Dordrecht 0-3 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.33 xG and Roda 1.60 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Roda attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | Roda 44%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.56 PPG, Roda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights