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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Dordrecht host Roda at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dordrecht — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 4W 6D 0L at M-Scores Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Dordrecht's 2 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Roda in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 63% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 57% | Roda 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Roda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.102 / defence 1.049 | Roda attack 1.115 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.276. Data: 63 Dordrecht games / 63 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Roda 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 3.33. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

Roda lead the H2H ledger, but Dordrecht carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 80% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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