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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.92 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.77 / defence 0.78 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Jong Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights