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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dordrecht and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Dordrecht and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.06 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Jong AZ attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 61% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 19%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 63%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights