🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dordrecht and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Dordrecht and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.00 xG and Jong AZ 1.27 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.32 / defence 1.06 against Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 23%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights