🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Jong Ajax 3-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.43 xG and Jong Ajax 0.84 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong Ajax landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.30 / defence 0.83 against Jong Ajax attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 72% | Draw 17% | Jong Ajax 11%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Jong Ajax 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights