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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 0.93 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 0.69, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights