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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.23 xG and Waalwijk 1.69 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.24 / defence 1.22 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 50% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 30%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Waalwijk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights