Den Bosch 4-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Vitesse travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at Stadion De Vliert: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Vitesse have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Den Bosch carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus Vitesse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Vitesse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.85 xG and Vitesse 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.190 / defence 0.777 | Vitesse attack 0.903 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.462. Den Bosch's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Den Bosch games / 9 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 55% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 19%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Vitesse 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 55% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Den Bosch 1.85 / Vitesse 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.190 / def 0.777 | Vitesse attack 0.903 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Vitesse xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Vitesse kick off?
Den Bosch vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Den Bosch 4 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Den Bosch vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Vitesse part of?
Den Bosch vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 55% chance of winning, Vitesse a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Den Bosch and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Vitesse in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.19) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.76
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.87
1.03
Vitesse xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
33.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.03 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 12D 19L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse's form line: 8W 10D 25L from 43 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.12 PPG, Vitesse on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 6W 1D 14L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 8W 10D 25L in their last 43 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Vitesse away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.10 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vitesse in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
0
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Vitesse have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Den Bosch 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Vitesse?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 57%, Vitesse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 67% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 29% of games; Vitesse in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 48% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of Vitesse's.
Do Den Bosch and Vitesse tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Vitesse 4-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.85 xG and Vitesse 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.19 / defence 0.78 against Vitesse attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 55% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 19%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Vitesse 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, Vitesse 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.