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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 2-0 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.65 xG and Jong Ajax 0.99 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Jong Ajax attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 53% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 23%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 50%, Jong Ajax 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights