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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.59 xG and Cambuur 1.52 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Cambuur attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 37%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Cambuur 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights