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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Almere City FC 5-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.90 xG and Almere City FC 1.32 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Almere City FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 26%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Almere City FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights