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Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat De Graafschap 1-4 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.91 xG and Vitesse 1.26 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Vitesse attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 24%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights