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Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Telstar 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Telstar 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.89 xG and Telstar 1.00 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.18 / defence 0.72 against Telstar attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 24% | Telstar 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, Telstar 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.61 PPG, Telstar 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights