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Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap and MVV finished level at 0-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.76 xG and MVV 0.75 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.41 / defence 0.85 against MVV attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 79% | Draw 13% | MVV 7%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, MVV 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.65 PPG, MVV 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights