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Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 5-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.19 xG and Jong AZ 1.15 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 0.88 against Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 61% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.59 PPG, Jong AZ 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights