🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong Ajax 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.32 xG and Jong Ajax 0.72 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.20 / defence 0.76 against Jong Ajax attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 73% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 9%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, Jong Ajax 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights