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De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights