De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.40 PPG, Excelsior 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Excelsior and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Excelsior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Excelsior 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Excelsior 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.418 / defence 0.852 | Excelsior attack 1.099 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.298. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 De Graafschap games / 28 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 21%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior 4.76. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Excelsior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG De Graafschap 2.12 / Excelsior 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.418 / def 0.852 | Excelsior attack 1.099 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Excelsior xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Excelsior kick off?
De Graafschap vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is De Graafschap vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Excelsior part of?
De Graafschap vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 57% chance of winning, Excelsior a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both De Graafschap and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Excelsior in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.42x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.56
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.33
1.22
Excelsior xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
2%
40.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.22 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 31W 13D 22L from 66 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 24L across 66 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.61 PPG, Excelsior on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 21W 4D 8L from 33 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Excelsior's away record stands at 8W 9D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Excelsior in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Excelsior in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 31W 13D 22L in their last 66 games (1.61 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Excelsior away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.03 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Excelsior?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 61%, Excelsior 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for De Graafschap and 79% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of De Graafschap's games and 67% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of De Graafschap's matches and 79% of Excelsior's.
Do De Graafschap and Excelsior tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Excelsior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Excelsior 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against Excelsior attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 21%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.61 PPG, Excelsior 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.