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Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Emmen 4-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.76 xG and Emmen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Emmen attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Emmen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.59 PPG, Emmen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights