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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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De Graafschap and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap and Den Bosch finished level at 1-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.90 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.09 / defence 1.21 against Den Bosch attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 48% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 64%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.63 PPG, Den Bosch 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights