🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Den Bosch 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 1-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.35 / defence 0.94 against Den Bosch attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 59% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.56 PPG, Den Bosch 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights