🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Cambuur 3-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.90 xG and Cambuur 1.62 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Cambuur attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 33%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 64%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.66 PPG, Cambuur 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights