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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat De Graafschap 0-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.52 / defence 0.93 against Cambuur attack 1.30 / defence 0.76, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, Cambuur 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.64 PPG, Cambuur 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights