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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Almere City FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Almere City FC 3-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Almere City FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Almere City FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Almere City FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights