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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.25 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.43 / defence 0.87 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 60% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights