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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambuur and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.07 xG and Waalwijk 1.20 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.19 / defence 0.78 against Waalwijk attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 57% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 21%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 52%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights