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Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong PSV U21 5-3 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 40% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 37%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights