Cambuur 5-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 2.00 PPG, Jong PSV U21 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2025, ended 4–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 47% versus Jong PSV U21 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 47% | Jong PSV U21 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.025 / defence 0.902 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.309 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Jong PSV U21 have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Cambuur games / 45 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Jong PSV U21 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 40% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Cambuur 1.64 / Jong PSV U21 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.025 / def 0.902 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.309 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Cambuur 5 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 40% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong PSV U21?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
40%
2.51
23%
4.28
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.21
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.57 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 26W 7D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 14W 6D 25L from 45 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.56 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 26W 7D 12L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 14W 6D 25L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Cambuur's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.95 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2025, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 54%, Jong PSV U21 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cambuur) and 59% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cambuur's recent matches and 50% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cambuur's recent games and 59% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong PSV U21 5-3 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.64 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 40% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 37%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.