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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out FC OSS 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat FC OSS 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.73 xG and FC OSS 1.02 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against FC OSS attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 54% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 46%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC OSS's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights