Cambuur 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cambuur at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Cambuur welcome FC OSS to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Cambuur) versus 1.30 (FC OSS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 2 for FC OSS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC OSS trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 46% versus FC OSS 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 46% | FC OSS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.73 xG and FC OSS 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.996 / defence 0.916 | FC OSS attack 0.885 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.265. Data: 39 Cambuur games / 39 FC OSS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 54% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.55. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 54% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambuur 1.73 / FC OSS 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.996 / def 0.916 | FC OSS attack 0.885 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC OSS xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs FC OSS kick off?
Cambuur vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Cambuur 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Cambuur vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC OSS part of?
Cambuur vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 54% chance of winning, FC OSS a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambuur and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are Cambuur and FC OSS in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.00x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.21
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.75
1.02
FC OSS xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.02 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 21W 6D 12L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 9W 14D 16L from 39 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 0W 10D 9L from 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.90 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 21W 6D 12L in their last 39 games (1.77 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 9W 14D 16L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC OSS away?
Cambuur's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.89 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Cambuur or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC OSS in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2023, when Cambuur won 1-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC OSS 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC OSS?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 53%, FC OSS 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cambuur) and 37% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC OSS in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cambuur's recent matches and 37% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cambuur's recent games and 37% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and FC OSS tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat FC OSS 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.73 xG and FC OSS 1.02 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against FC OSS attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 54% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 46%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC OSS's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.