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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.95 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 62% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 16%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 49%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights