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Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Excelsior 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Excelsior 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.01 xG and Excelsior 1.23 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against Excelsior attack 0.91 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 29% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 40%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, Excelsior 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Excelsior's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.36 PPG, Excelsior 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights