Cambuur 1-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Cambuur welcome Dordrecht to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Cambuur) versus 1.80 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 0, Dordrecht 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 61% and Dordrecht 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 60% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.62 xG and Dordrecht 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.010 / defence 0.843 | Dordrecht attack 0.983 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.281. Data: 67 Cambuur games / 67 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 50% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 4.00. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 50% | Dordrecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 50% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambuur 1.62 / Dordrecht 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.010 / def 0.843 | Dordrecht attack 0.983 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Dordrecht xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Dordrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 10 March 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Cambuur 1 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Dordrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 50% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambuur and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Dordrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.01) and Dordrecht's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.93
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
Dordrecht xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
20.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.06 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 67 games, going 29W 12D 26L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.82 PPG from 67 outings (33W 23D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.48 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 12W 8D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.58 points per game from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.85 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 29W 12D 26L in their last 67 games (1.48 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 33W 23D 11L in their last 67 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.33 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Dordrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Dordrecht won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambuur
2
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Dordrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 67%, Dordrecht at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Cambuur and 61% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 64% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cambuur's matches and 61% of Dordrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Dordrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.62 xG and Dordrecht 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Dordrecht attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 50% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 60%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.48 PPG, Dordrecht 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.