Cambuur 2-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host Den Bosch at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 1.90 PPG versus Den Bosch's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 2, Den Bosch 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 48% versus Den Bosch 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 47% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.54 xG and Den Bosch 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.226 / defence 0.740 | Den Bosch attack 1.018 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.434. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Cambuur games / 56 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 69% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 14%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Den Bosch 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 69% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 69% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Cambuur 2.54 / Den Bosch 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.226 / def 0.740 | Den Bosch attack 1.018 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Den Bosch kick off?
Cambuur vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Cambuur vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Den Bosch part of?
Cambuur vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 69% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cambuur and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Den Bosch in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.82
14%
7.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.62
1.08
Den Bosch xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
7.15
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
8%
12.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
1%
90.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.08 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 58 games, going 33W 11D 14L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.48 PPG from 58 outings (24W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 18W 5D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (10W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 33W 11D 14L in their last 58 games (1.90 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Den Bosch away?
Cambuur's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.03 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Den Bosch runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cambuur
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Den Bosch?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 52%, Den Bosch 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Cambuur and 72% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Den Bosch in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cambuur's recent matches and 55% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Cambuur's matches and 72% of Den Bosch's.
Do Cambuur and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Den Bosch 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Den Bosch 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.54 xG and Den Bosch 1.08 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.23 / defence 0.74 against Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 69% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 14%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Den Bosch's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.