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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Almere City FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Almere City FC 3-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.31 xG and Almere City FC 1.31 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 59% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 55%, Almere City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Almere City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights