Cambuur 2-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kooi Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kooi Stadion this season.
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Cambuur, 1.80 for ADO Den Haag — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 64% and ADO Den Haag 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 64% | ADO Den Haag 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.16 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.764 / defence 0.920 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.227 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.399. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Cambuur games / 55 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 27% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 46%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | ADO Den Haag 2.17. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 50% | ADO Den Haag 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 27% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Cambuur 1.16 / ADO Den Haag 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.764 / def 0.920 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.227 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.58
ADO Den Haag xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Cambuur 2 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 27% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cambuur and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and ADO Den Haag?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.76x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.23x) against Cambuur's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
27%
3.75
28%
3.61
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.74
1.58
ADO Den Haag xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
5%
18.21
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.58 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 10D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (22W 19D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cambuur against 1.55 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 8W 7D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.85 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 71%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 21W 10D 24L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 22W 19D 14L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.15 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Cambuur
0
Draws
1
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 5, ADO Den Haag have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and ADO Den Haag?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Cambuur, 70% for ADO Den Haag — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Cambuur and 70% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cambuur's games and 70% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Cambuur's matches and 70% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Cambuur and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat ADO Den Haag 2-1 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.16 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.58 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.23 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 27% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 46%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 64%, ADO Den Haag 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.33 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.