🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Almere City FC and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 32, as Almere City FC and Waalwijk drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Waalwijk attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.08 PPG, Waalwijk 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights